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The Reality of the Florida Primary Fight

by: T Rex

Sun Sep 02, 2007 at 13:43:13 PM PDT

Everybody is going a bit crazy about the fight between the DNC and the FDP over the seating of delegates at the national convention. There's a lot more to say about this at other times and for other reasons. But one aspect of the debate is somewhat overdone. The claim that our votes won't be counted doesn't make much sense. The fact is, no state's delegates "count" at the convention. The only influence that a state has in the election process is by determining who the front-runner will be during the early part of the electoral cycle. Florida will have a huge impact on that on January 29, regardless of whether or not our votes are official that day. But, by the time the convention comes around, the vote for the nomination will have been long determined and 200 votes will have no impact on the outcome. They never have. The results at conventions going back to 1936 make this clear. In 1936 (and earlier) a candidate had to win 2/3rds of convention delegates to win the Democratic nomination. Since then, the rules have required only a majority and at no convention since then would 200 votes make a difference in the outcome:

T Rex :: The Reality of the Florida Primary Fight

2004 John Kerry 4253, Dennis Kucinich 43

2000 Al Gore Unanimous

1996 Bill Clinton Unanimous

1992 Bill Clinton 3372, Jerry Brown 596

1988 Michael Dukakis 2687, Jesse Jackson 1218

1984 Walter Mondale 2191, Gary Hart 1200

1980 Jimmy Carter 2129.02, Ted Kennedy 1150.48

1976 Jimmy Carter 2278, Morris "Mo" Udall 329

1972 George McGovern 1864.95, Henry "Scoop" Jackson 525

1968 Hubert Humphrey 1759.25, Eugene McCarthy 601

1964 Lyndon Johnson Unanimous by acclimation

1960 John Kennedy 806, Lyndon Johnson 409

1956 Adlai Stevenson 905.5, Averell Harriman 210

1952 Adlai Stevenson 617.5, Estes Kefauver 275.5

1948 Harry Truman 947, Richard Russell 263

1944 Franklin Roosevelt 1086, Harry Byrd 87

1940 Franklin Roosevelt 946, James Farley 72

1936 Franklin Roosevelt Unanimous by acclimation

So the fear that our 200 votes won't "count" is a bit misplaced, since they won't count anyway. At that point, the decision is no longer that of the DNC anyway, it is the decision of the nominee. If Florida helps catapult someone to a lead that is permanent, then there is absolutely no way that nominee will reject our delegates at the convention. Even if we don't help determine the nominee, they still won't want to reject us because of our status as No. 1 swing state. So, our delegates will be seated.

The real concern when it comes to the nomination is that our efforts, and those of Michigan, Wyoming and other states who are moving up, is that we will be pushing change in the nominating process, which is hugely important. The current system is broken. It doesn't work. It doesn't help the candidates, it doesn't help the Democratic Party and it doesn't help America. It does help the Republicans, though, by helping them win the general election. Iowa and New Hampshire are not representative of the rest of the nation and allowing them so much power in the nomination process is a huge mistake. Why?

Iowa Caucus winners:

2004: Kerry (lost general)

2000: Gore (lost general)

1996: Clinton (no serious opposition, won general)

1992: Harkin (lost primary, Clinton won general)

1988: Gephardt (lost primary, eventual nominee lost general)

1984: Mondale (lost general)

1980: Jimmy Carter (lost general)

1976: Uncommitted (more than a third chose no one)

1972: Muskie (lost primary, eventual nominee lost general)

New Hampshire Primary winners:

2004: Kerry (lost general)

2000: Gore (lost general)

1996: Clinton (no serious opposition, won general)

1992: Tsongas (lost primary, Clinton won general)

1988: Dukakis (lost general)

1984: Hart (lost primary, eventual nominee lost general)

1980: Carter (lost general)

1976: Carter (won general)

1972: Muskie (lost primary, eventual nominee lost general)

1968: Johnson (lost primary, eventual nominee lost general)

1964: Johnson (no serious opposition, won general)

1960: Kennedy (no serious opposition, won general)

1956: Kefauver (lost primary, eventual nominee lost general)

1952: Kefauver (lost primary, eventual nominee lost general)

To be fair, some of these years, any Dem candidate would've lost in the general election, but it's quite clear that Iowa and New Hampshire are NOT good barometers of the feeling of the nation. We need to create a system that is more inclusive and gives the rest of the country a fair shake in determining the Democratic nominee.